Edmund Fitton-Brown argues that the U.S. is "running out of ideas" regarding economic pressure on Iran, labeling a land blockade as far-fetched due to uncooperative neighbors. He suggests that secondary sanctions on Chinese "teapot" refineries are a more practical tool. Regarding Yemen, Fitton-Brown observes that the Houthis have become emboldened by U.S. irresolution and are pushing south to capture the Bab el-Mandeb. He expresses cautious optimism regarding Jared Kushner's diplomatic delegation, noting that experienced figures like Tony Blair are unlikely to be "dupes" for Hamas during negotiations. (5)

Malcolm Hoenlein provides an overview of the October 27th Israeli election, explaining the complex "list" voting system and Netanyahu's challenges. He discusses the "Board of Peace" negotiations, stressing that the central hurdle remains Hamas's refusal to disarm before Israeli withdrawal. Hoenlein also touches on regional tensions, including Hezbollah's rearming and internal unrest in Iran fueled by economic desperation. Finally, he notes Turkey's significant lobbying efforts in Washington through a new headquarters and a "glorious new front" of diplomatic normalization between Israel and several South American nations including Colombia. (4)

Janatyn Sayeh explores the "secret plan" of Iranian hardliners to escalate regional conflict and raise costs for the United States. He notes that while the Iranian economy is an existential vulnerability, the regime is willing to ride out sanctions to maintain its Islamist agenda. Sayeh critiques the viability of a U.S. land blockade, citing the difficulty of gaining cooperation from neighbors like Afghanistan and Pakistan. He argues that power is concentrated within the IRGCsecurity establishment rather than just the Supreme Leader, and that internal rifts are secondary to the elite's collective survival. (3)

Bridget Toomey analyzes the reawakening of the Yemeni Civil War, noting that the Houthis are launching fresh offensives to seize the Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb choke point. While the Houthis claim to target Saudiinterests, their primary focus has shifted to defeating government-backed ground troops. Toomey highlights the extensive use of drone technology by both sides, with the Houthis demonstrating sophisticated capabilities while the Yemeni government adopts modified Chinese systems. She notes that Saudi Arabia remains hesitant to fully re-initiate a large-scale military intervention despite continued Houthi aggression. (2)

Bill Roggio reflects on the five-year anniversary of the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, highlighting the accuracy of the maps he built that predicted the Taliban's takeover. He describes the withdrawal as disorganized, noting there was zero plan for the Afghan government or military equipment. Roggio specifically criticizes the abandonment of Bagram Air Base, which he believes was the superior evacuation site. He also addresses current Middle East policy, dismissing proposed land blockades against Iran as "fanciful" and impractical. He warns that current strategic failures mirror the indifference seen in Afghanistan. (1)

Padraic Scanlan — Multi-Part, Part Two: Padraic Scanlan examines the British government's response to the Great Famine, highlighting how ideological commitments to free trade and to civilizing the poor exacerbated the tragedy. Prime Minister Robert Peel initially attempted relief through public works projects and the secret importation of American maize, known as Indian corn. However, these measures were designed as an employer of last resort, offering wages lower than the lowest private pay to avoid distorting market dynamics. Other officials, such as the Duke of Wellington, remained skeptical of the crisis, viewing reports of mass starvation as political exaggerations by Irish repealers seeking independence. Scanlan details the punitive nature of the New Poor Law, which mandated that relief be provided primarily through workhouses designed to be more miserable than the worst outside conditions. Although the Temporary Relief Act of 1847 eventually allowed for soup kitchens, the experience remained humiliating; the celebrity chef Alexis Soyer's model kitchen in Dublin gave starving people only six minutes to eat. Beyond inadequate food, the peasantry faced deroofing, a practice in which bailiffs pulled the thatch off cottages during evictions to ensure they remained uninhabitable. This systematic displacement, combined with the lack of circulating cash, fueled a volatile environment of outrages and state coercion. Ultimately, the famine led to a 20 to 25 percent decline in the Irish population and remains a central, formative event for the global Irish diaspora. (2)

Padraic Scanlan — Multi-Part, Part One: Padraic Scanlan explores the deep-seated historical and economic causes of the Great Irish Famine, beginning with the haunting folk memory of Queen Victoria's visit to Skibbereen, a village that became an icon of social collapse and starvation. While the crisis was triggered by the failure of potato crops, Scanlan emphasizes that the vulnerability of the Irish population was manufactured through centuries of British conquest and colonial land management. By the nineteenth century, a tiny oligarchy owned the vast majority of Irish land, with 4,000 people controlling 80 percent of the island. The rural economy rested on a fragile three-legged stool consisting of the potato, the pig, and turf for fuel. The potato served as the glue of this system, allowing landlords to maintain a low-wage, capital-poor labor force that could survive on small, high-yield plots. The economic landscape was further constrained by the conacre system, short-term and expensive leases for tiny parcels of land that discouraged any improvements, as visible prosperity might prompt a rent increase. This precarious existence was justified by influential Victorian economists such as Thomas Malthus, who argued that famine was a dreadful resource of nature necessary to check population growth and compel the uncivilized poor to work. When the novel pathogen Phytophthora infestans arrived from the Americas in the early 1840s, it decimated the genetically uniform potato monocrop. The blight not only killed the growing tubers but also rotted stored supplies, leaving the two million people who relied exclusively on the potato with no buffer against catastrophe. (1)

Gary Rivlin — Multi-Part, Part Two: Gary Rivlin turns to the clash of ideologies and corporate power plays defining the current AI era. Rivlin details the divide between accelerationists, who believe AI progress should not be hindered by regulation, and doomers, who fear catastrophic risks. He notes that while the public is often fearful, safety measures and government standards, similar to those developed for the automobile and railroad industries, are essential to building trust. The conversation addresses critical concerns regarding privacy, copyright, and the cultural biases of AI creators, who are largely a small group of young male gamers. The melodrama of the trillion-dollar race is exemplified by the November 2023 firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI's nonprofit board, which felt he was prioritizing commercial growth over safety. Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella expertly navigated this crisis, nearly hiring the entire OpenAI staff before Altman's reinstatement, and later hiring Mustafa Suleyman and the team from Inflection AI to bolster Microsoft's internal efforts. Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg has adopted an open-source strategy for Meta to challenge the dominance of closed-source rivals such as Google and OpenAI. Finally, the segment highlights a major shift in regulation; while the Biden administration sought common-sense testing requirements, the Trump administration and figures such as JD Vance favor an aggressive accelerationist stance to ensure the United States defeats China in the global race to dominate and cash in on artificial intelligence. (2)

Gary Rivlin — Multi-Part, Part One: Gary Rivlin, author of AI Valley: Microsoft, Google, and the Trillion-Dollar Race to Cash In on Artificial Intelligence, explores the origins and personalities driving the modern artificial intelligence revolution. Rivlin begins by demythologizing AI, focusing on central figures such as Reid Hoffman, a polymath whose childhood obsession with strategy games and thirst for human connection led him to co-found LinkedIn and become a premier venture capitalist. Hoffman represents the bloomer perspective, an optimist who sees AI as a co-pilot to amplify human intelligence. The narrative highlights the interconnectedness of Silicon Valley, tracing the friendships and debates between Hoffman, Peter Thiel, and Elon Musk that date back to their early days at PayPal. The history of AI is traced to Frank Rosenblatt's 1950s vision of neural networks, which aimed to create machines that learn as humans do. This approach was long ridiculed by proponents of rules-based computing, leading to decades of AI winters in which funding and interest evaporated. The revival came in the 2010s with Mustafa Suleyman and Demis Hassabis, whose London-based startup DeepMind proved that neural networks could master complex tasks through feedback. After Google acquired DeepMind in 2014, Elon Musk, fearing a corporate monopoly on the technology, co-founded OpenAI as a nonprofit. The discussion concludes with the rise of Sam Altman and the 2017 Transformer paper, a breakthrough from Google researchers that allowed computers to understand context, ultimately enabling generative AI and ChatGPT. (1)